TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061187
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118811911––
Pavel Hala
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Hala to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Pavel Hala below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Hala at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 8–13 Pavel Hala Lukas Provaznik has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Hala
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1578 vs Hala 1607
Hala
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Hala 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Hala 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Hala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.61 / Hala 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Provaznik)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061187
Provaznik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Hala2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 43 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik2wins
AwayHala8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHala leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik33.3%1 of 3
AwayHala85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik3Hala7n = 10Hala took 7 of 10
S2Provaznik1Hala9n = 10Hala took 9 of 10
S3Provaznik5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik4Hala3n = 7Provaznik took 4 of 7
S5Provaznik2Hala4n = 6Hala took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHalaP − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.744.3−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHalaBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 326 vs 307 / 60947.9%50.4%156 / 326 vs 307 / 609Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.61/Hala 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 24 · 20:13L. Provaznik—711911113P. Hala—11911682
LApr 24 · 17:45L. Provaznik—681161P. Hala—11117113
LJan 25 · 09:00L. Provaznik—111011592P. Hala—812911103
LJan 12 · 18:15L. Provaznik—78100P. Hala—1111123
LAug 31 · 14:15L. Provaznik—121041192P. Hala—1012117113
LAug 29 · 14:00L. Provaznik—5470P. Hala—1111113
WJul 27 · 09:05L. Provaznik—1114128133P. Hala—9161011112
LJul 27 · 08:00L. Provaznik—73111182P. Hala—111166113
LJul 3 · 15:45L. Provaznik—710141172P. Hala—1112129113
LMay 28 · 13:45L. Provaznik—7280P. Hala—1111113
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
P. Hala10
WSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113LSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123WSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123LSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141WSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.91115179113P. Hala1.80311151162LSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102LSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113LSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
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