TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049737
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210112511811116
Leon Kolman
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 58.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 4–1 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1569 vs Kolman 1644
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Kolman 40%
Provaznik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Kolman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +1 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.57 / Kolman 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Provaznik)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13049737
Provaznik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 38 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Kolman2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayKolman1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderProvaznik leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik66.7%2 of 3
AwayKolmann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik3Kolman2n = 5Provaznik took 3 of 5
S2Provaznik4Kolman1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
S3Provaznik2Kolman3n = 5Kolman took 3 of 5
S4Provaznik3Kolman2n = 5Provaznik took 3 of 5
S5Provaznik2Kolman1n = 3Provaznik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricProvaznikKolmanP − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match46.840.6+6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 322 vs 354 / 66747.8%53.1%154 / 322 vs 354 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.57/Kolman 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 25 · 05:15L. Provaznik—1311910112L. Kolman—1171112133
WJul 1 · 15:45L. Provaznik—1111911113L. Kolman—13411742
WApr 6 · 18:30L. Provaznik—136117113L. Kolman—111161142
WFeb 6 · 20:45L. Provaznik—11113143L. Kolman—7911121
WJan 31 · 16:45L. Provaznik—71111113L. Kolman—116831
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
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