TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12407779
Played Aug 12Finished
Miroslav Hajek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411117117115––
Lukas Provaznik
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Hajek above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 67 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 56.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Hajek 28–11 Lukas Provaznik Lukas Provaznik has won 11 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-11 in 39
Hajek
Correct
gap of 17 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1553 vs Provaznik 1570
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 40% vs Provaznik 60%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 30% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek -3 · Provaznik +1
Hajek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 1.53 / Provaznik 2.38
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hajek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12407779
Hajek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it77% 50 of 65
Provaznik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 66 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHajek7wins
AwayProvaznik3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHajek87.5%7 of 8
AwayProvaznikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hajek8Provaznik2n = 10Hajek took 8 of 10
S2Hajek6Provaznik4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Hajek4Provaznik6n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S4Hajek6Provaznik3n = 9Hajek took 6 of 9
S5Hajek3Provaznik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHajekProvaznikH − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.439.1+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 677 vs 160 / 34453.9%46.5%365 / 677 vs 160 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHajek 1.53/Provaznik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 20 · 13:45M. Hajek—116712113L. Provaznik—411111062
WMay 7 · 08:43M. Hajek—1211113L. Provaznik—10930
WMay 7 · 05:45M. Hajek—11119123L. Provaznik—9711101
WMay 6 · 10:00M. Hajek—11128113L. Provaznik—5101191
WMay 3 · 13:45M. Hajek—111188113L. Provaznik—39111182
LApr 26 · 12:24M. Hajek—11811482L. Provaznik—511711113
LApr 26 · 11:15M. Hajek—91211772L. Provaznik—1110611113
LApr 13 · 13:45M. Hajek—46111182L. Provaznik—111164113
WMar 30 · 19:45M. Hajek—111110113L. Provaznik—831291
WMar 16 · 14:45M. Hajek—118711113L. Provaznik—81111592
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113LSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek1.73116571Z. Vasatko2.0091111113
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
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