TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12414303
Played Aug 12Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117118311116
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 12–29 Miroslav Hajek Lukas Provaznik has won 12 of their 41 meetings.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.38 / Hajek 1.53
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Hajek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12414303
Provaznik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 66 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Hajek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it77% 50 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayHajek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayHajek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik5Hajek5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik3Hajek5n = 8Hajek took 5 of 8
S5Provaznik3Hajek2n = 5Provaznik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHajekP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.5−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 345 vs 366 / 67846.4%54%160 / 345 vs 366 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekProvaznik 2.38/Hajek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 15:45L. Provaznik—117751M. Hajek—41111113
WMay 20 · 16:18L. Provaznik—1111123M. Hajek—96100
LMay 20 · 13:45L. Provaznik—411111062M. Hajek—116712113
LMay 7 · 08:43L. Provaznik—10930M. Hajek—1211113
LMay 7 · 05:45L. Provaznik—9711101M. Hajek—11119123
LMay 6 · 10:00L. Provaznik—5101191M. Hajek—11128113
LMay 3 · 13:45L. Provaznik—39111182M. Hajek—111188113
WApr 26 · 12:24L. Provaznik—511711113M. Hajek—11811482
WApr 26 · 11:15L. Provaznik—1110611113M. Hajek—91211772
WApr 13 · 13:45L. Provaznik—111164113M. Hajek—46111182
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113WAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751
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