TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084109
Played Sep 6Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14127111171210––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:04 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 64.4%
84 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 14–23 Miroslav Hajek Roman Merkl has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-23 in 37
Hajek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1574 vs Hajek 1685
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 60% vs Hajek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Hajek 80%
Hajek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Hajek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.38 / Hajek 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Hajek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084109
Merkl2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back37% 43 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 54
Hajek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 61 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl3wins
AwayHajek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl100%3 of 3
AwayHajek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl3Hajek7n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S2Merkl3Hajek7n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S3Merkl4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Merkl5Hajek2n = 7Merkl took 5 of 7
S5Merkl1Hajek3n = 4Hajek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklHajekM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.1−3.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 559 vs 366 / 67348.8%54.4%273 / 559 vs 366 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekMerkl 2.38/Hajek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl—14711123M. Hajek—12117101
LSep 2 · 21:04R. Merkl—26110M. Hajek—1111133
LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl—1481191M. Hajek—16116113
LAug 28 · 20:50R. Merkl—51191172M. Hajek—119116113
WAug 28 · 19:45R. Merkl—121111113M. Hajek—1081341
LAug 7 · 13:30R. Merkl—91111452M. Hajek—118711113
LNov 1 · 09:00R. Merkl—41070M. Hajek—1112113
LJul 30 · 13:15R. Merkl—9560M. Hajek—1111113
WJul 30 · 08:37R. Merkl—1181211133M. Hajek—411145112
LJul 30 · 06:30R. Merkl—781111112M. Hajek—111186133
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113WSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.