TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078946
Played Sep 5Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210911117114––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 9–7 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Lopata
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1534 vs Kolman 1641
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 20% vs Kolman 80%
Kolman
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 40% vs Kolman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata -3 · Kolman +2
Lopata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 2.00 / Kolman 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078946
Lopata2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 13 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Kolman1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 83 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata7wins
AwayKolman3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLopata leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata75%3 of 4
AwayKolman33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Lopata7Kolman3n = 10Lopata took 7 of 10
S3Lopata3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Lopata7Kolman1n = 8Lopata took 7 of 8
S5Lopata4Kolman2n = 6Lopata took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataKolmanL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.3+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 269 vs 355 / 66951.3%53.1%138 / 269 vs 355 / 669Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanLopata 2.00/Kolman 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 12:54V. Lopata—1211113L. Kolman—10660
LJul 20 · 11:45V. Lopata—41161352L. Kolman—1181111113
LJul 9 · 10:15V. Lopata—9920L. Kolman—1111113
WApr 26 · 09:30V. Lopata—121210113L. Kolman—10101291
WApr 8 · 17:00V. Lopata—9111311113L. Kolman—11915852
LApr 8 · 15:00V. Lopata—11611372L. Kolman—511611113
WApr 5 · 14:45V. Lopata—117611123L. Kolman—811118102
WMar 2 · 11:45V. Lopata—71111113L. Kolman—117991
WFeb 17 · 13:41V. Lopata—511711113L. Kolman—11811642
WFeb 17 · 11:00V. Lopata—10111011143L. Kolman—129124122
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103LAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Lopata
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L. Kolman
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