TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044564
Played Aug 30Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191191210––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 1–0 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:36What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1598 vs Lopata 1571
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 60% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 70% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky -1 · Lopata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.83 / Lopata 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lopata)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044564
Kalensky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lopata1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKalensky1wins
AwayLopata0wins
Kalensky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKalenskyLopataK − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.039.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 518 vs 138 / 26754.6%51.7%283 / 518 vs 138 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataKalensky 1.83/Lopata 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky—81111123V. Lopata—1199101
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103LAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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