TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079260
Played Sep 5Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411117811––
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 2–4 Jachym Juppa Stepan Kalensky has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Juppa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Juppa
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1680 vs Juppa 1489
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 100% vs Juppa 60%
Kalensky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 100% vs Juppa 40%
Kalensky
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +5 · Juppa +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.91 / Juppa 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kalensky)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079260
Kalensky1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 46 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Juppa1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 79 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it69% 64 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKalensky2wins
AwayJuppa4wins
Juppa leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky66.7%2 of 3
AwayJuppa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky3Juppa3n = 6split evenly
S2Kalensky2Juppa4n = 6Juppa took 4 of 6
S3Kalensky2Juppa4n = 6Juppa took 4 of 6
S4Kalensky1Juppa2n = 3Juppa took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKalenskyJuppaK − JBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match30.332.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 516 vs 450 / 86355.4%52.1%286 / 516 vs 450 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.91/Juppa 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 1 · 20:00S. Kalensky—11115113J. Juppa—421181
LJul 7 · 18:45S. Kalensky—88130J. Juppa—1111153
WMay 9 · 16:49S. Kalensky—1111113J. Juppa—7590
LMay 9 · 13:15S. Kalensky—6950J. Juppa—1111113
LMay 1 · 17:45S. Kalensky—761171J. Juppa—11116113
LJul 13 · 20:00S. Kalensky—1111451J. Juppa—61311103
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113
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