TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094833
Played Sep 7Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91112141191012––
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 88 set 4, 10-12
88 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 1–2 Adam Pavlik Stepan Kalensky has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kalensky beat Pavlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 2.20 / Pavlik 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Pavlik)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094833
Kalensky2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 47 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Pavlik1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 36 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKalensky1wins
AwayPavlik2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPavlik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky1Pavlik2n = 3Pavlik took 2 of 3
S2Kalensky2Pavlik1n = 3Kalensky took 2 of 3
S3Kalensky1Pavlik2n = 3Pavlik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKalenskyPavlikK − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.739.3+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 525 vs 166 / 32354.9%51.4%288 / 525 vs 166 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikKalensky 2.20/Pavlik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 7 · 18:00S. Kalensky—121112113A. Pavlik—1041481
LAug 21 · 18:00S. Kalensky—711111172A. Pavlik—115913113
LJun 23 · 18:45S. Kalensky—9890A. Pavlik—1111113
S. Kalensky10
LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293
A. Pavlik10
WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133LSep 7 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.80118691D. Brichacek1.9171111113LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113
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