TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13091004
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8115111113––––
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 59 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 6–10 Adam Pavlik Petr Orlowski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Orlowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Pavlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1692 vs Pavlik 1566
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Pavlik 0%
Orlowski
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 80% vs Pavlik 10%
Orlowski
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +3 · Pavlik -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.80 / Pavlik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13091004
Orlowski1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite54% won 57 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 43 of 60
Pavlik1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 41 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski4wins
AwayPavlik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavlik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski100%4 of 4
AwayPavlik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski4Pavlik6n = 10Pavlik took 6 of 10
S2Orlowski5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Orlowski6Pavlik4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S4Orlowski2Pavlik4n = 6Pavlik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiPavlikO − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.234.2−1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 343 vs 166 / 32353.4%51.4%183 / 343 vs 166 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.80/Pavlik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski—85110A. Pavlik—1111133
LAug 13 · 17:15P. Orlowski—891671A. Pavlik—111114113
LJul 22 · 19:30P. Orlowski—81111652A. Pavlik—119911113
WJun 23 · 20:48P. Orlowski—1112113A. Pavlik—51040
LJun 23 · 19:45P. Orlowski—81040A. Pavlik—1112113
WJun 21 · 19:45P. Orlowski—11116113A. Pavlik—661171
WJun 7 · 05:45P. Orlowski—1211113A. Pavlik—10640
LMay 31 · 19:00P. Orlowski—611471A. Pavlik—11511113
LApr 29 · 17:30P. Orlowski—2111181A. Pavlik—11135113
WApr 24 · 17:30P. Orlowski—11511113A. Pavlik—511751
P. Orlowski10
WSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 17:30P. Orlowski1.83111110113D. Brichacek1.83571261WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161
A. Pavlik10
LSep 7 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.80118691D. Brichacek1.9171111113LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131
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