TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13091005
Played Sep 7Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811611911––
David Brichacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held David Brichacek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 3–1 David Brichacek David Brichacek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Pavlik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1537 vs Brichacek 1696
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 0% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 10% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -5 · Brichacek -1
Pavlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Brichacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 1.80 / Brichacek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Brichacek)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13091005
Pavlik1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 36 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Brichacek1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back37% 24 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePavlik3wins
AwayBrichacek1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderPavlik leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik2Brichacek2n = 4split evenly
S2Pavlik1Brichacek3n = 4Brichacek took 3 of 4
S3Pavlik4Brichacek0n = 4Pavlik took 4 of 4
S4Pavlik2Brichacek2n = 4split evenly
S5Pavlik2Brichacek1n = 3Pavlik took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPavlikBrichacekP − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.843.0+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 321 vs 165 / 31351.4%52.7%165 / 321 vs 165 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekPavlik 1.80/Brichacek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 13 · 20:48A. Pavlik—116119122D. Brichacek—411811143
WAug 13 · 19:45A. Pavlik—41111113D. Brichacek—116891
WApr 29 · 21:13A. Pavlik—861111113D. Brichacek—11118792
WApr 29 · 20:00A. Pavlik—127119113D. Brichacek—101181142
A. Pavlik10
WSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113
D. Brichacek10
WSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 17:30P. Orlowski1.83111110113D. Brichacek1.83571261WSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113WSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113WSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113WSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250WSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113WSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.