TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088703
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116911117––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:07 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 65.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 6–5 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1721 vs Kalensky 1572
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Kalensky 40%
Orlowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 80% vs Kalensky 30%
Orlowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +2 · Kalensky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.50 / Kalensky 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13088703
Orlowski1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite54% won 57 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 43 of 60
Kalensky2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 47 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski6wins
AwayKalensky4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKalensky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski7Kalensky3n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S2Orlowski4Kalensky6n = 10Kalensky took 6 of 10
S3Orlowski8Kalensky2n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S4Orlowski5Kalensky2n = 7Orlowski took 5 of 7
S5Orlowski1Kalensky3n = 4Kalensky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiKalenskyO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.034.2+6.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 341 vs 289 / 52553.4%55.1%182 / 341 vs 289 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.50/Kalensky 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 20:18P. Orlowski—1211781S. Kalensky—14811113
WAug 27 · 19:15P. Orlowski—11411113S. Kalensky—711961
WAug 20 · 18:45P. Orlowski—1115113S. Kalensky—31320
WAug 12 · 20:28P. Orlowski—1111113S. Kalensky—8560
LAug 12 · 18:00P. Orlowski—1191111102S. Kalensky—711139123
WJul 2 · 18:30P. Orlowski—8101111113S. Kalensky—11124252
WJun 30 · 18:00P. Orlowski—1111113S. Kalensky—9670
LJun 23 · 17:45P. Orlowski—69111152S. Kalensky—111157113
WJun 22 · 21:08P. Orlowski—11811113S. Kalensky—211381
LJun 22 · 20:00P. Orlowski—116117112S. Kalensky—911711133
P. Orlowski10
LSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133WSep 7 · 17:30P. Orlowski1.83111110113D. Brichacek1.83571261WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161
S. Kalensky10
LSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293
Upcoming Matches
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