TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078882
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Hanke
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116811117611
Jachym Juppa
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Hanke above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Hanke at 60.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hanke 27–16 Jachym Juppa Jachym Juppa has won 16 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hanke
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-16 in 43
Hanke
Wrong
gap of 11 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanke 1516 vs Juppa 1506
Hanke
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanke 20% vs Juppa 100%
Juppa
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanke 30% vs Juppa 60%
Juppa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanke -3 · Juppa +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Hanke) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanke 1.61 / Juppa 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Hanke)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13078882
Hanke1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 70 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 50 of 63
Juppa2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 97 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanke7wins
AwayJuppa3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHanke leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanke85.7%6 of 7
AwayJuppa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanke7Juppa3n = 10Hanke took 7 of 10
S2Hanke7Juppa3n = 10Hanke took 7 of 10
S3Hanke6Juppa4n = 10Hanke took 6 of 10
S4Hanke5Juppa3n = 8Hanke took 5 of 8
S5Hanke2Juppa3n = 5Juppa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHankeJuppaH − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.939.7+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHankeJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 512 vs 450 / 86153.3%52.3%273 / 512 vs 450 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HankeHanke 1.61/Juppa 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke—81181162J. Juppa—116117113
WAug 1 · 11:30T. Hanke—1111113J. Juppa—9930
WJul 16 · 16:28T. Hanke—11814113J. Juppa—6111231
WJul 16 · 14:30T. Hanke—12117113J. Juppa—1091161
LJul 11 · 07:45T. Hanke—11914542J. Juppa—6111211113
WJun 18 · 16:29T. Hanke—139129113J. Juppa—1111101182
WJun 18 · 13:15T. Hanke—1111113J. Juppa—9590
WJun 10 · 14:30T. Hanke—71111113J. Juppa—118771
WFeb 13 · 17:18T. Hanke—111149123J. Juppa—991111102
LFeb 13 · 15:45T. Hanke—811111372J. Juppa—1181311113
T. Hanke10
LSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113LSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181WSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113LAug 28 · 20:28D. Brichacek1.671111113T. Hanke2.105440LAug 28 · 19:30T. Hanke2.10611512122D. Brichacek1.671161110143LAug 28 · 18:30T. Hanke2.10891191P. Maly1.6711119113
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113
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