TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031294
Played Aug 28Finished
Tomas Hanke
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911119911––
Petr Maly
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hanke above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Maly at 59.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hanke 3–9 Petr Maly Tomas Hanke has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maly
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Maly
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanke 1540 vs Maly 1593
Maly
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanke 40% vs Maly 20%
Hanke
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanke 40% vs Maly 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanke +1 · Maly -3
Maly
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Maly) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanke 2.10 / Maly 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Maly)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031294
Hanke2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Maly1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 68 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 51 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanke3wins
AwayMaly7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaly leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanke60%3 of 5
AwayMaly100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanke5Maly5n = 10split evenly
S2Hanke4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S3Hanke5Maly5n = 10split evenly
S4Hanke4Maly5n = 9Maly took 5 of 9
S5Hanke1Maly3n = 4Maly took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHankeMalyH − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.3−1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHankeMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 522 vs 240 / 44154%54.4%282 / 522 vs 240 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyHanke 2.10/Maly 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 19:30T. Hanke—68111172P. Maly—111199113
LJul 31 · 17:15T. Hanke—1081191P. Maly—12117113
WJun 6 · 16:43T. Hanke—13711113P. Maly—1111751
LJun 6 · 13:45T. Hanke—11951152P. Maly—711115113
LMay 26 · 18:45T. Hanke—15115121P. Maly—17911143
LMay 8 · 17:30T. Hanke—711791P. Maly—11711113
WNov 19 · 18:30T. Hanke—1111113P. Maly—6950
WAug 23 · 15:45T. Hanke—111158113P. Maly—98111132
LAug 20 · 17:15T. Hanke—116791P. Maly—71111113
LAug 3 · 13:30T. Hanke—69111152P. Maly—111197113
T. Hanke10
LSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113LSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181WSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113LSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113LAug 28 · 20:28D. Brichacek1.671111113T. Hanke2.105440LAug 28 · 19:30T. Hanke2.10611512122D. Brichacek1.671161110143
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113
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