TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084136
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Hanke
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199111012611––
Ludek Stoces
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLudek Stoces to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hanke above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ludek Stoces at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hanke 1–2 Ludek Stoces Tomas Hanke has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stoces
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanke 1494 vs Stoces 1579
Stoces
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanke 20% vs Stoces 60%
Stoces
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanke 20% vs Stoces 40%
Stoces
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanke -1 · Stoces -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stoces)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanke form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanke 2.00 / Stoces 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stoces)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13084136
Hanke2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Stoces1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 17 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it41% 7 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHanke1wins
AwayStoces2wins
Stoces leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanke1Stoces2n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S2Hanke1Stoces2n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S3Hanke1Stoces2n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHankeStocesH − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.337.0−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHankeStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 514 vs 87 / 20053.1%43.5%273 / 514 vs 87 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StocesHanke 2.00/Stoces 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke—1191061L. Stoces—91112113
LJan 6 · 20:15T. Hanke—7580L. Stoces—1111113
WDec 28 · 13:00T. Hanke—81111113L. Stoces—119691
T. Hanke10
LSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113LSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181WSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113LSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113LAug 28 · 20:28D. Brichacek1.671111113T. Hanke2.105440LAug 28 · 19:30T. Hanke2.10611512122D. Brichacek1.671161110143LAug 28 · 18:30T. Hanke2.10891191P. Maly1.6711119113
L. Stoces10
WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781WAug 29 · 16:15L. Stoces1.5711118113P. Maly2.25881141LAug 29 · 15:15P. Maly1.731211911123L. Stoces2.001013114102WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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