TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044523
Played Aug 30Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115117711611119
Leon Kolman
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Leon Kolman at 61.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 3–5 Leon Kolman Ludek Stoces has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1565 vs Kolman 1672
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 60% vs Kolman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +2 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 2.38 / Kolman 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13044523
Stoces2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Kolman1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 105 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStoces3wins
AwayKolman5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKolman leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStocesn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces2Kolman6n = 8Kolman took 6 of 8
S2Stoces3Kolman5n = 8Kolman took 5 of 8
S3Stoces5Kolman3n = 8Stoces took 5 of 8
S4Stoces3Kolman3n = 6split evenly
S5Stoces2Kolman2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricStocesKolmanS − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match39.040.5−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 196 vs 354 / 66843.4%53%85 / 196 vs 354 / 668Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanStoces 2.38/Kolman 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 13 · 17:30L. Stoces—61141182L. Kolman—119116113
WMar 15 · 12:00L. Stoces—1311113L. Kolman—11660
WFeb 28 · 12:00L. Stoces—691211113L. Kolman—111110532
WDec 28 · 13:35L. Stoces—671211113L. Kolman—111110472
LDec 28 · 11:30L. Stoces—991171L. Kolman—11118113
LNov 17 · 10:15L. Stoces—615100L. Kolman—1117123
LNov 5 · 21:26L. Stoces—41311782L. Kolman—1111311113
LNov 5 · 20:15L. Stoces—116951L. Kolman—91111113
L. Stoces10
WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781WAug 29 · 16:15L. Stoces1.5711118113P. Maly2.25881141LAug 29 · 15:15P. Maly1.731211911123L. Stoces2.001013114102WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781
Upcoming Matches
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L. Kolman
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