TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079180
Played Sep 5Finished
Petr Maly
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210411811711––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:37 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Petr Maly at 56.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 5–1 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:37What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Maly
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1466 vs Kolman 1620
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 0% vs Kolman 40%
Kolman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 30% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly -5 · Kolman -1
Maly
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 2.25 / Kolman 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Kolman)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079180
Maly2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog55% won 41 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Kolman1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 83 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMaly5wins
AwayKolman1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMaly leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly100%3 of 3
AwayKolman33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly3Kolman3n = 6split evenly
S2Maly5Kolman1n = 6Maly took 5 of 6
S3Maly5Kolman1n = 6Maly took 5 of 6
S4Maly4Kolman0n = 4Maly took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMalyKolmanM − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.233.5+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 448 vs 355 / 67153.4%52.9%239 / 448 vs 355 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanMaly 2.25/Kolman 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WApr 19 · 13:45P. Maly—71111113L. Kolman—119761
WAug 31 · 14:30P. Maly—111111113L. Kolman—813851
WAug 24 · 15:00P. Maly—1111113L. Kolman—6790
LAug 6 · 20:00P. Maly—61171432L. Kolman—1181112113
WJul 25 · 18:15P. Maly—101111113L. Kolman—123871
WJun 15 · 11:45P. Maly—1613113L. Kolman—141140
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113WSep 1 · 18:15P. Maly2.381111612113M. Hajek1.5386111482
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
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