TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061316
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171141113119––
Petr Maly
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 4–6 Petr Maly Jan Simecek Jnr has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:34What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maly
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Maly
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1622 vs Maly 1509
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Maly 40%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Maly 40%
Jnr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Maly -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maly) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Maly 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maly)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061316
Jnr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Maly1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr4wins
AwayMaly6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaly leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr33.3%1 of 3
AwayMaly57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Maly7n = 10Maly took 7 of 10
S2Jnr7Maly3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S3Jnr3Maly7n = 10Maly took 7 of 10
S4Jnr4Maly4n = 8split evenly
S5Jnr2Maly2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrMalyJ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.040.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 428 vs 239 / 44451.9%53.8%222 / 428 vs 239 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyJnr 1.83/Maly 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 17:30J. Jnr—1111113P. Maly—9560
LJul 30 · 20:58J. Jnr—213312142P. Maly—11111110163
LJul 30 · 18:00J. Jnr—114771P. Maly—41111113
WJul 25 · 09:30J. Jnr—6111110113P. Maly—11931292
LJul 8 · 19:00J. Jnr—911121182P. Maly—116149113
LOct 27 · 21:33J. Jnr—118851P. Maly—91111113
WOct 27 · 20:45J. Jnr—81111113P. Maly—116851
LSep 11 · 20:26J. Jnr—3490P. Maly—1111113
WSep 11 · 17:30J. Jnr—811712113P. Maly—116111072
LAug 14 · 19:15J. Jnr—611721P. Maly—11611113
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113WSep 1 · 18:15P. Maly2.381111612113M. Hajek1.5386111482
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