TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462002
Played Aug 20Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117119511811
Petr Orlowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 56.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 23–18 Petr Orlowski Petr Orlowski has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Jnr
Wrong
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1595 vs Orlowski 1607
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Orlowski 80%
Orlowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Orlowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Orlowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.73 / Orlowski 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jnr)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462002
Jnr1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 66 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Orlowski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayOrlowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr40%2 of 5
AwayOrlowski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr2Orlowski8n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S3Jnr6Orlowski4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr6Orlowski3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S5Jnr3Orlowski2n = 5Jnr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrOrlowskiJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.544.4−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 421 vs 160 / 30951.5%51.8%217 / 421 vs 160 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.73/Orlowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 19:15J. Jnr—118791P. Orlowski—81111113
WAug 13 · 20:18J. Jnr—1991111113P. Orlowski—21116992
LAug 13 · 19:15J. Jnr—49111182P. Orlowski—111188113
WJul 20 · 17:45J. Jnr—1111173P. Orlowski—86150
LJul 16 · 20:13J. Jnr—225991P. Orlowski—201111113
WJul 16 · 19:13J. Jnr—111111123P. Orlowski—1377101
WJul 14 · 20:00J. Jnr—661112113P. Orlowski—111141092
LJul 8 · 20:59J. Jnr—45111182P. Orlowski—111197113
LJul 8 · 20:00J. Jnr—115891P. Orlowski—41111113
WJun 30 · 20:33J. Jnr—1151111113P. Orlowski—81113882
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191LAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112LAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Jnr
P. Orlowski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.