TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008516
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
20181210711118––
Premysl Rucky
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Premysl Rucky below
Set 1 · 20-18
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 97 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 2–0 Premysl Rucky Premysl Rucky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1597 vs Rucky 1548
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Rucky 60%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Rucky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Rucky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rucky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.53 / Rucky 2.38
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)-6.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13008516
Jnr1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 65 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 45 of 61
Rucky2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog60% won 9 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back43% 3 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJnr2wins
AwayRucky0wins
Jnr leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJnrRuckyJ − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match34.525.0+9.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrRuckyBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 424 vs 27 / 5651.7%48.2%219 / 424 vs 27 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.53/Rucky 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 30 · 20:00J. Jnr—11311113P. Rucky—411581
WJul 17 · 19:00J. Jnr—1111113P. Rucky—6970
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
P. Rucky10
LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281LAug 25 · 19:45T. Hanke2.25117511113P. Rucky1.5731111852LAug 25 · 18:45P. Orlowski2.101111113P. Rucky1.677590WAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113LAug 21 · 19:30P. Rucky1.83961181A. Pavlik1.8311119113WAug 21 · 18:30P. Rucky1.61101111123S. Kalensky2.201298101
Upcoming Matches
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