TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466908
Played Aug 21Finished
Premysl Rucky
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121191181210––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePremysl Rucky to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPremysl Rucky above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 83 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Premysl Rucky at 59.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Premysl Rucky 2–0 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rucky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rucky 1536 vs Kalensky 1529
Rucky
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rucky 60% vs Kalensky 0%
Rucky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rucky 70% vs Kalensky 40%
Rucky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rucky -1 · Kalensky -5
Kalensky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Rucky) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRucky 1.61 / Kalensky 2.20
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Rucky)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12466908
Rucky1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite43% won 9 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Kalensky2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRucky2wins
AwayKalensky0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderRucky leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRuckyKalenskyR − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.042.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuckyKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 55 vs 278 / 51747.3%53.8%26 / 55 vs 278 / 517Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuckyRucky 1.61/Kalensky 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Rucky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rucky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 21 · 18:30P. Rucky—101111123S. Kalensky—1298101
WAug 13 · 19:30P. Rucky—871111113S. Kalensky—11119952
P. Rucky10
LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281LAug 25 · 19:45T. Hanke2.25117511113P. Rucky1.5731111852LAug 25 · 18:45P. Orlowski2.101111113P. Rucky1.677590LAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113LAug 21 · 19:30P. Rucky1.83961181A. Pavlik1.8311119113
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113LAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113
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