TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008520
Played Aug 25Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115119––––
Premysl Rucky
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePremysl Rucky to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Premysl Rucky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Premysl Rucky at 55.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 1–1 Premysl Rucky Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rucky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1608 vs Rucky 1507
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Rucky 40%
Orlowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 50% vs Rucky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +2 · Rucky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rucky) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rucky form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 2.10 / Rucky 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rucky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13008520
Orlowski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 47 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back34% 14 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Rucky1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite44% won 11 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOrlowski1wins
AwayRucky1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricOrlowskiRuckyO − RBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.532.5+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiRuckyBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 324 vs 27 / 5952.2%45.8%169 / 324 vs 27 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuckyOrlowski 2.10/Rucky 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rucky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 25 · 18:45P. Orlowski—1111113P. Rucky—7590
LMay 29 · 19:15P. Orlowski—11128582P. Rucky—1101111113
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
P. Rucky10
LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281LAug 25 · 19:45T. Hanke2.25117511113P. Rucky1.5731111852LAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113LAug 21 · 19:30P. Rucky1.83961181A. Pavlik1.8311119113WAug 21 · 18:30P. Rucky1.61101111123S. Kalensky2.201298101
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