TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467016
Played Aug 21Finished
Premysl Rucky
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611119811––
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPremysl Rucky above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Premysl Rucky 0–1 Adam Pavlik Premysl Rucky has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pavlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rucky 1536 vs Pavlik 1640
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rucky 60% vs Pavlik 80%
Pavlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rucky 70% vs Pavlik 50%
Rucky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rucky +1 · Pavlik +3
Pavlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRucky 1.83 / Pavlik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavlik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467016
Rucky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pavlik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRucky0wins
AwayPavlik1wins
Pavlik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRuckyPavlikR − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.042.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuckyPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 55 vs 163 / 31947.3%51.1%26 / 55 vs 163 / 319Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikRucky 1.83/Pavlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 19:30P. Rucky—961181A. Pavlik—11119113
P. Rucky10
LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281LAug 25 · 19:45T. Hanke2.25117511113P. Rucky1.5731111852LAug 25 · 18:45P. Orlowski2.101111113P. Rucky1.677590LAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113WAug 21 · 18:30P. Rucky1.61101111123S. Kalensky2.201298101
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103
Upcoming Matches
P. Rucky
Nothing scheduled
A. Pavlik
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