TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445060
Played Aug 17Finished
Martin Skyba
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611711115119711
Leon Kolman
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Skyba above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Skyba at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skyba 2–3 Leon Kolman Martin Skyba has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1657 vs Kolman 1624
Skyba
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 100% vs Kolman 40%
Skyba
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 70% vs Kolman 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba +5 · Kolman -2
Skyba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 1.80 / Kolman 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skyba)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12445060
Skyba1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 19 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Kolman1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 60 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkyba2wins
AwayKolman3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKolman leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyban = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba2Kolman3n = 5Kolman took 3 of 5
S2Skyba2Kolman3n = 5Kolman took 3 of 5
S3Skyba3Kolman2n = 5Skyba took 3 of 5
S4Skyba2Kolman3n = 5Kolman took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkybaKolmanS − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match41.244.2−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 125 vs 352 / 66456%53%70 / 125 vs 352 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaSkyba 1.80/Kolman 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 25 · 08:43M. Skyba—611681L. Kolman—11911113
WJul 25 · 06:45M. Skyba—129119113L. Kolman—101161172
LJul 7 · 09:04M. Skyba—941181L. Kolman—11116113
LJul 7 · 06:00M. Skyba—71181772L. Kolman—1181115113
WNov 21 · 17:00M. Skyba—13411133L. Kolman—11116111
M. Skyba10
WAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 16:00L. Kolman1.8371114992M. Skyba1.831191211113WAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113LAug 31 · 13:30Z. Vasatko2.3811125113M. Skyba1.535101181LAug 29 · 08:58M. Skyba1.44114111082D. Brichacek2.63811712113WAug 29 · 08:00M. Skyba1.401111113R. Merkl2.759580WAug 29 · 06:30D. Brichacek2.2055100M. Skyba1.611111123WAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113LAug 17 · 12:45L. Kolman1.83816911113M. Skyba1.83111411572WAug 17 · 11:15T. Hybl1.835540M. Skyba1.831111113
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LAug 31 · 16:00L. Kolman1.8371114992M. Skyba1.831191211113WAug 17 · 12:45L. Kolman1.83816911113M. Skyba1.83111411572
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