TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12449854
Played Aug 17Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111614911115117
Martin Skyba
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Martin Skyba below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 103 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Martin Skyba at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 4–2 Martin Skyba Martin Skyba has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kolman
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1657 vs Skyba 1657
Skyba
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 60% vs Skyba 80%
Skyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 70% vs Skyba 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +2 · Skyba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.83 / Skyba 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skyba)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12449854
Kolman1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Skyba1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolman4wins
AwaySkyba2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKolman leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman100%4 of 4
AwaySkyban = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman4Skyba2n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
S2Kolman4Skyba2n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
S3Kolman2Skyba4n = 6Skyba took 4 of 6
S4Kolman3Skyba3n = 6split evenly
S5Kolman2Skyba1n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolmanSkybaK − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.741.3+3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 667 vs 71 / 12853.2%55.5%355 / 667 vs 71 / 128Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaKolman 1.83/Skyba 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 17 · 10:45L. Kolman—111159113M. Skyba—67111172
WJul 25 · 08:43L. Kolman—11911113M. Skyba—611681
LJul 25 · 06:45L. Kolman—101161172M. Skyba—129119113
WJul 7 · 09:04L. Kolman—11116113M. Skyba—941181
WJul 7 · 06:00L. Kolman—1181115113M. Skyba—71181772
LNov 21 · 17:00L. Kolman—11116111M. Skyba—13411133
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
M. Skyba10
WAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 16:00L. Kolman1.8371114992M. Skyba1.831191211113WAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113LAug 31 · 13:30Z. Vasatko2.3811125113M. Skyba1.535101181LAug 29 · 08:58M. Skyba1.44114111082D. Brichacek2.63811712113WAug 29 · 08:00M. Skyba1.401111113R. Merkl2.759580WAug 29 · 06:30D. Brichacek2.2055100M. Skyba1.611111123WAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113WAug 17 · 11:15T. Hybl1.835540M. Skyba1.831111113LAug 17 · 10:45M. Skyba1.8067111172L. Kolman1.91111159113
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