TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079311
Played Sep 5Finished
Filip Kubos
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118107––––
Josef Hanacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Kubos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-5
Point 47 set 3, 7-5 — our read held Filip Kubos at 54.0%
47 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Filip Kubos 19–19 Josef Hanacek Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kubos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1583 vs Hanacek 1386
Kubos
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 60% vs Hanacek 20%
Kubos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 50% vs Hanacek 30%
Kubos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos +3 · Hanacek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kubos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 1.80 / Hanacek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kubos)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079311
Kubos1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 75 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 57 of 79
Hanacek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog47% won 53 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back31% 19 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubos5wins
AwayHanacek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubos66.7%4 of 6
AwayHanacek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos6Hanacek4n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S2Kubos6Hanacek4n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S3Kubos6Hanacek4n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S4Kubos2Hanacek4n = 6Hanacek took 4 of 6
S5Kubos1Hanacek2n = 3Hanacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubosHanacekK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.3−0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 718 vs 226 / 43751.4%51.7%369 / 718 vs 226 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubosKubos 1.80/Hanacek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kubos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos—1111103J. Hanacek—5870
WAug 26 · 12:58F. Kubos—71114113J. Hanacek—1181271
LAug 26 · 11:00F. Kubos—12350J. Hanacek—1411113
WAug 25 · 12:00F. Kubos—1212113J. Hanacek—101070
LAug 2 · 16:28F. Kubos—121181192J. Hanacek—145119113
LAug 2 · 13:30F. Kubos—115111072J. Hanacek—911712113
LAug 1 · 17:15F. Kubos—11610121J. Hanacek—91112143
LJul 17 · 11:45F. Kubos—411951J. Hanacek—11811113
WJul 14 · 07:45F. Kubos—1412115113J. Hanacek—121451152
WJul 13 · 09:03F. Kubos—1111143J. Hanacek—97120
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 20:00S. Kalensky1.73111139113F. Kubos2.0069111142LSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133LAug 29 · 07:45F. Kubos1.80111111662T. Bertho1.91581311113LAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172
J. Hanacek10
WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162WSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161LSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 06:00O. Plyska1.9111118113J. Hanacek1.80641131
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