TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067036
Played Sep 3Finished
Miroslav Vana
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191214117411119
Josef Hanacek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 64.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vana 8–3 Josef Hanacek Josef Hanacek has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Vana
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1545 vs Hanacek 1453
Vana
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 40% vs Hanacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 60% vs Hanacek 40%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana -1 · Hanacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vana form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.50 / Hanacek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Vana)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067036
Vana1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 51 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Hanacek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 52 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVana7wins
AwayHanacek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVana75%6 of 8
AwayHanacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana8Hanacek2n = 10Vana took 8 of 10
S2Vana5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vana5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vana4Hanacek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanaHanacekV − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.535.4+4.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 358 vs 225 / 43152.2%52.2%187 / 358 vs 225 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.50/Hanacek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana—121114113J. Hanacek—1051691
WAug 22 · 14:00M. Vana—119118113J. Hanacek—71171142
WAug 15 · 11:30M. Vana—1111113J. Hanacek—7870
WJul 27 · 05:30M. Vana—111011113J. Hanacek—912541
LJul 18 · 15:00M. Vana—126651J. Hanacek—101111113
WJul 13 · 05:30M. Vana—81111113J. Hanacek—115431
WJun 10 · 06:30M. Vana—1111113J. Hanacek—7960
WJun 8 · 11:00M. Vana—117713113J. Hanacek—711111182
LFeb 25 · 09:28M. Vana—119731J. Hanacek—91111113
LFeb 25 · 07:30M. Vana—61110121J. Hanacek—11712143
M. Vana10
LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123WSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113LAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Vana2.10121011113L. Hendrych1.671012991
J. Hanacek10
WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152LSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162WSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161LSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 06:00O. Plyska1.9111118113J. Hanacek1.80641131
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