TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049577
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Stejskal
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311116811119611
Miroslav Vana
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Stejskal above · Miroslav Vana below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 57.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stejskal 1–3 Miroslav Vana Tomas Stejskal has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vana
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stejskal 1480 vs Vana 1581
Vana
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stejskal 60% vs Vana 100%
Vana
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stejskal 70% vs Vana 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stejskal +2 · Vana +5
Vana
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vana) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vana form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStejskal 2.20 / Vana 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Vana)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049577
Stejskal2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 14 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Vana1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 49 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStejskal1wins
AwayVana3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVana leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStejskaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVana100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stejskal1Vana3n = 4Vana took 3 of 4
S2Stejskal3Vana1n = 4Stejskal took 3 of 4
S3Stejskal1Vana3n = 4Vana took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricStejskalVanaS − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match32.837.5−4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStejskalVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 221 vs 186 / 35646.6%52.3%103 / 221 vs 186 / 356Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaStejskal 2.20/Vana 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal—31181162M. Vana—116119113
WJan 15 · 07:30T. Stejskal—1311113M. Vana—11950
LJan 5 · 09:00T. Stejskal—8111271M. Vana—11814113
LDec 25 · 19:00T. Stejskal—7480M. Vana—1111113
T. Stejskal10
WAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460WAug 31 · 17:30T. Stejskal2.20111013113L. Hendrych1.618121161LAug 24 · 12:23T. Stejskal1.3011101081J. Jnr3.4081212113LAug 24 · 11:45T. Stejskal2.00610111182M. Vorel1.73111261113WAug 24 · 10:15J. Jnr2.635720T. Stejskal1.441111113LAug 24 · 09:45J. Hanacek1.9111111112123T. Stejskal1.80137514102WAug 19 · 20:18J. Jnr2.1091180T. Stejskal1.671113113WAug 19 · 19:15T. Stejskal1.83118119113J. Jnr1.8371161152WAug 19 · 18:15T. Stejskal1.8311115113A. Dvoracek1.83571171
M. Vana10
LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123WSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113LAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Vana2.10121011113L. Hendrych1.671012991
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