TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481727
Played Aug 24Finished
Tomas Stejskal
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111012116111811
Martin Vorel
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Stejskal above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stejskal 5–10 Martin Vorel Tomas Stejskal has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Vorel
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stejskal 1493 vs Vorel 1370
Stejskal
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stejskal 80% vs Vorel 40%
Stejskal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stejskal 80% vs Vorel 30%
Stejskal
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stejskal +1 · Vorel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stejskal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStejskal 2.00 / Vorel 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stejskal)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12481727
Stejskal2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Vorel1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 96 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 71 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStejskal3wins
AwayVorel7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStejskal60%3 of 5
AwayVorel100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stejskal5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Stejskal2Vorel8n = 10Vorel took 8 of 10
S3Stejskal4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S4Stejskal4Vorel4n = 8split evenly
S5Stejskal1Vorel2n = 3Vorel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStejskalVorelS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.739.6−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStejskalVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 224 vs 414 / 80047.8%51.8%107 / 224 vs 414 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StejskalStejskal 2.00/Vorel 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stejskal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 9 · 15:30T. Stejskal—117411113M. Vorel—31111742
LMay 26 · 08:29T. Stejskal—57131192M. Vorel—1111118113
WMay 26 · 07:30T. Stejskal—11811113M. Vorel—611961
LDec 16 · 16:15T. Stejskal—711841M. Vorel—11511113
LNov 7 · 21:31T. Stejskal—7980M. Vorel—1111113
LNov 7 · 19:00T. Stejskal—1381161M. Vorel—15115113
LNov 2 · 20:00T. Stejskal—111410762M. Vorel—3121211103
WOct 19 · 14:00T. Stejskal—1981183M. Vorel—1711641
LAug 1 · 06:15T. Stejskal—1186101M. Vorel—71111123
LMay 30 · 16:28T. Stejskal—12770M. Vorel—1411113
T. Stejskal10
WAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113LAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460WAug 31 · 17:30T. Stejskal2.20111013113L. Hendrych1.618121161LAug 24 · 12:23T. Stejskal1.3011101081J. Jnr3.4081212113WAug 24 · 10:15J. Jnr2.635720T. Stejskal1.441111113LAug 24 · 09:45J. Hanacek1.9111111112123T. Stejskal1.80137514102WAug 19 · 20:18J. Jnr2.1091180T. Stejskal1.671113113WAug 19 · 19:15T. Stejskal1.83118119113J. Jnr1.8371161152WAug 19 · 18:15T. Stejskal1.8311115113A. Dvoracek1.83571171
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.