TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481721
Played Aug 24Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711211––––
Tomas Stejskal
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Stejskal to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Tomas Stejskal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 47 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Tomas Stejskal at 71.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 1–3 Tomas Stejskal Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stejskal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Stejskal
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1334 vs Stejskal 1496
Stejskal
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Stejskal 80%
Stejskal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 20% vs Stejskal 80%
Stejskal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -2 · Stejskal +4
Stejskal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Stejskal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stejskal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.63 / Stejskal 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 72%
Edge (Stejskal)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12481721
Jnr2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 90 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back35% 28 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Stejskal1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 24 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJnr1wins
AwayStejskal3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStejskal leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Stejskal2n = 4split evenly
S2Jnr2Stejskal2n = 4split evenly
S3Jnr1Stejskal3n = 4Stejskal took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJnrStejskalJ − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.838.2−3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrStejskalBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 462 vs 106 / 22251.1%47.8%236 / 462 vs 106 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StejskalJnr 2.63/Stejskal 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Stejskal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stejskal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 19 · 20:18J. Jnr—91180T. Stejskal—1113113
LAug 19 · 19:15J. Jnr—71161152T. Stejskal—118119113
WAug 12 · 17:03J. Jnr—1112113T. Stejskal—91050
LAug 12 · 16:00J. Jnr—1196111T. Stejskal—91111133
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491
T. Stejskal10
WAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113LAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460WAug 31 · 17:30T. Stejskal2.20111013113L. Hendrych1.618121161LAug 24 · 12:23T. Stejskal1.3011101081J. Jnr3.4081212113LAug 24 · 11:45T. Stejskal2.00610111182M. Vorel1.73111261113LAug 24 · 09:45J. Hanacek1.9111111112123T. Stejskal1.80137514102WAug 19 · 20:18J. Jnr2.1091180T. Stejskal1.671113113WAug 19 · 19:15T. Stejskal1.83118119113J. Jnr1.8371161152WAug 19 · 18:15T. Stejskal1.8311115113A. Dvoracek1.83571171
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