TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049567
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Stejskal
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114116––––
Ondrej Karpisek
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Stejskal above · Ondrej Karpisek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 60.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stejskal 0–4 Ondrej Karpisek Tomas Stejskal has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Karpisek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stejskal 1476 vs Karpisek 1419
Stejskal
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stejskal 40% vs Karpisek 0%
Stejskal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stejskal 60% vs Karpisek 20%
Stejskal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stejskal +1 · Karpisek -5
Karpisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Karpisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStejskal 2.63 / Karpisek 1.44
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Karpisek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13049567
Stejskal2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 14 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Karpisek1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 30 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStejskal0wins
AwayKarpisek4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKarpisek leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStejskaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKarpisek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stejskal1Karpisek3n = 4Karpisek took 3 of 4
S2Stejskal2Karpisek2n = 4split evenly
S3Stejskal1Karpisek3n = 4Karpisek took 3 of 4
S4Stejskal1Karpisek2n = 3Karpisek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricStejskalKarpisekS − KBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.245.0−8.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStejskalKarpisekBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 219 vs 227 / 47946.6%47.4%102 / 219 vs 227 / 479Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekStejskal 2.63/Karpisek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stejskal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LFeb 20 · 16:30T. Stejskal—114711102O. Karpisek—711119123
LJan 17 · 16:15T. Stejskal—6870O. Karpisek—1111113
LJan 10 · 17:00T. Stejskal—311111052O. Karpisek—119912113
LDec 6 · 14:30T. Stejskal—101110101O. Karpisek—12912123
T. Stejskal10
WAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113LAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113WAug 31 · 17:30T. Stejskal2.20111013113L. Hendrych1.618121161LAug 24 · 12:23T. Stejskal1.3011101081J. Jnr3.4081212113LAug 24 · 11:45T. Stejskal2.00610111182M. Vorel1.73111261113WAug 24 · 10:15J. Jnr2.635720T. Stejskal1.441111113LAug 24 · 09:45J. Hanacek1.9111111112123T. Stejskal1.80137514102WAug 19 · 20:18J. Jnr2.1091180T. Stejskal1.671113113WAug 19 · 19:15T. Stejskal1.83118119113J. Jnr1.8371161152WAug 19 · 18:15T. Stejskal1.8311115113A. Dvoracek1.83571171
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:00M. Vana1.8311119113O. Karpisek1.83641181LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113LAug 17 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.91135100S. Kalensky1.801511123WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 15:15V. Lopata1.53811611113O. Karpisek2.3811411962LAug 14 · 13:45O. Karpisek1.835740P. Hala1.831111113
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