TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049831
Played Aug 31Finished
Miroslav Vana
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116114911118––
Ondrej Karpisek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Ondrej Karpisek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Vana 1555 vs Karpisek 1427
Vana
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 60% vs Karpisek 20%
Vana
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 70% vs Karpisek 20%
Vana
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana +3 · Karpisek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.83 / Karpisek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vana)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049831
Vana1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Karpisek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaKarpisekBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 353 vs 227 / 47851.8%47.5%183 / 353 vs 227 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.83/Karpisek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vana won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Vana10
LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123WSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113LAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113LAug 17 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.91135100S. Kalensky1.801511123WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 15:15V. Lopata1.53811611113O. Karpisek2.3811411962LAug 14 · 13:45O. Karpisek1.835740P. Hala1.831111113
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