TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428149
Played Aug 14Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811114611119116
Ondrej Karpisek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:32 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Ondrej Karpisek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 66.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 10–11 Ondrej Karpisek Vladimir Lopata has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lopata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1548 vs Karpisek 1460
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 80% vs Karpisek 20%
Lopata
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 70% vs Karpisek 30%
Lopata
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata +4 · Karpisek -2
Lopata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Lopata) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 1.53 / Karpisek 2.38
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Lopata)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428149
Lopata1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 22 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it75% 18 of 24
Karpisek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back32% 20 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata8wins
AwayKarpisek2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLopata leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata100%7 of 7
AwayKarpisek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata7Karpisek3n = 10Lopata took 7 of 10
S2Lopata6Karpisek4n = 10Lopata took 6 of 10
S3Lopata5Karpisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Lopata4Karpisek2n = 6Lopata took 4 of 6
S5Lopata4Karpisek1n = 5Lopata took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataKarpisekL − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.835.8+4.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataKarpisekBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 265 vs 233 / 49251.7%47.4%137 / 265 vs 233 / 492Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataLopata 1.53/Karpisek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 8 · 15:30V. Lopata—118611163O. Karpisek—211118142
WJan 2 · 10:45V. Lopata—61111113O. Karpisek—118891
WDec 21 · 18:30V. Lopata—1212113O. Karpisek—101030
WDec 5 · 15:45V. Lopata—1111113O. Karpisek—4590
WNov 20 · 16:30V. Lopata—117413113O. Karpisek—611111192
LOct 9 · 13:30V. Lopata—571111112O. Karpisek—111139133
LAug 27 · 16:32V. Lopata—82110O. Karpisek—1111133
WAug 27 · 14:00V. Lopata—111166113O. Karpisek—65111192
WJul 13 · 15:15V. Lopata—1111113O. Karpisek—4850
WMay 7 · 13:30V. Lopata—1111115113O. Karpisek—59131182
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460LAug 31 · 18:00M. Vana1.8311119113O. Karpisek1.83641181LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113LAug 17 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.91135100S. Kalensky1.801511123WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 13:45O. Karpisek1.835740P. Hala1.831111113
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