TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445018
Played Aug 17Finished
Ondrej Karpisek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
13155111012––––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 66 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 58.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Karpisek 3–3 Stepan Kalensky Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1465 vs Kalensky 1577
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 40% vs Kalensky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 30% vs Kalensky 50%
Kalensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek +1 · Kalensky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 1.91 / Kalensky 1.80
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Kalensky)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12445018
Karpisek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back33% 21 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Kalensky1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 79 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKarpisek3wins
AwayKalensky3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpisek100%3 of 3
AwayKalensky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpisek3Kalensky3n = 6split evenly
S2Karpisek4Kalensky2n = 6Karpisek took 4 of 6
S3Karpisek2Kalensky4n = 6Kalensky took 4 of 6
S4Karpisek1Kalensky3n = 4Kalensky took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKarpisekKalenskyKarpisek − KalenskyBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match32.733.8−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 490 vs 275 / 51047.6%53.9%233 / 490 vs 275 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKarpisek 1.91/Kalensky 1.80
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 19 · 19:00O. Karpisek—913661S. Kalensky—111111113
WJun 14 · 19:30O. Karpisek—111148113S. Kalensky—26111172
WJun 7 · 17:30O. Karpisek—1111113S. Kalensky—7930
WMay 17 · 20:00O. Karpisek—11811113S. Kalensky—811481
LMay 10 · 16:41O. Karpisek—5540S. Kalensky—1111113
LMay 10 · 15:30O. Karpisek—711741S. Kalensky—1191183
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460LAug 31 · 18:00M. Vana1.8311119113O. Karpisek1.83641181LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 15:15V. Lopata1.53811611113O. Karpisek2.3811411962LAug 14 · 13:45O. Karpisek1.835740P. Hala1.831111113
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
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