TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445110
Played Aug 17Finished
Jiri Tichy
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117118911114
Ondrej Karpisek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Tichy above · Ondrej Karpisek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 92 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Tichy 18–16 Ondrej Karpisek Ondrej Karpisek has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:34What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-16 in 34
Tichy
Correct
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1509 vs Karpisek 1446
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 40% vs Karpisek 20%
Tichy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 20% vs Karpisek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy -3 · Karpisek -2
Tichy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.91 / Karpisek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpisek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12445110
Tichy1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 13 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Karpisek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTichy5wins
AwayKarpisek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichy75%3 of 4
AwayKarpisek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy4Karpisek6n = 10Karpisek took 6 of 10
S2Tichy6Karpisek4n = 10Tichy took 6 of 10
S3Tichy2Karpisek8n = 10Karpisek took 8 of 10
S4Tichy5Karpisek2n = 7Tichy took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTichyKarpisekT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.436.8−3.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyKarpisekBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 217 vs 233 / 49248.9%47.4%106 / 217 vs 233 / 492Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekTichy 1.91/Karpisek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 19:00J. Tichy—71112113O. Karpisek—1181091
LMay 24 · 20:29J. Tichy—94100O. Karpisek—1111123
LMay 24 · 18:30J. Tichy—123451O. Karpisek—101111113
WApr 13 · 19:45J. Tichy—11126113O. Karpisek—7101111
LMar 26 · 21:14J. Tichy—611111022O. Karpisek—119712113
WMar 26 · 20:15J. Tichy—11114123O. Karpisek—7811101
LFeb 26 · 20:30J. Tichy—8640O. Karpisek—1111113
LFeb 11 · 18:45J. Tichy—4850O. Karpisek—1111113
WDec 21 · 21:29J. Tichy—11129113O. Karpisek—4101121
WDec 21 · 20:30J. Tichy—4111311113O. Karpisek—11615762
J. Tichy10
LAug 26 · 20:38S. Kalensky1.7311101311113J. Tichy2.0081215842LAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123LAug 26 · 18:30J. Tichy1.8010770S. Kalensky1.911211113LAug 26 · 17:30J. Tichy2.007760V. Herrmann1.731111113WAug 23 · 08:48D. Brichacek1.44811971J. Tichy2.6311811113LAug 23 · 07:45J. Tichy2.258770D. Brichacek1.571111113WAug 23 · 06:15P. Hala1.61715119102J. Tichy2.201113311123LAug 23 · 05:45P. Orlowski1.731116113J. Tichy2.0031440WAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 18:30J. Tichy1.80611891S. Kalensky1.9111411113
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460LAug 31 · 18:00M. Vana1.8311119113O. Karpisek1.83641181LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113LAug 17 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.91135100S. Kalensky1.801511123WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 15:15V. Lopata1.53811611113O. Karpisek2.3811411962LAug 14 · 13:45O. Karpisek1.835740P. Hala1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Tichy
O. Karpisek
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