TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13014955
Played Aug 26Finished
Jiri Tichy
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711711––––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Tichy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Tichy above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jiri Tichy at 54.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Tichy 4–1 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tichy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Tichy
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1506 vs Kalensky 1539
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 40% vs Kalensky 60%
Kalensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 40% vs Kalensky 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy -1 · Kalensky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.80 / Kalensky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13014955
Tichy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 22 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Kalensky1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 42 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTichy4wins
AwayKalensky1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTichy leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKalensky25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy1Kalensky4n = 5Kalensky took 4 of 5
S2Tichy5Kalensky0n = 5Tichy took 5 of 5
S3Tichy3Kalensky2n = 5Tichy took 3 of 5
S4Tichy2Kalensky2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricTichyKalenskyT − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.635.0+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 220 vs 278 / 51548.6%54%107 / 220 vs 278 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.80/Kalensky 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 17 · 18:30J. Tichy—611891S. Kalensky—11411113
WAug 12 · 19:30J. Tichy—911116113S. Kalensky—11251172
WJun 22 · 17:30J. Tichy—513811133S. Kalensky—1111117112
WMay 3 · 21:04J. Tichy—1111113S. Kalensky—6690
WMay 3 · 19:00J. Tichy—51111113S. Kalensky—114961
J. Tichy10
LAug 26 · 20:38S. Kalensky1.7311101311113J. Tichy2.0081215842LAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123LAug 26 · 17:30J. Tichy2.007760V. Herrmann1.731111113WAug 23 · 08:48D. Brichacek1.44811971J. Tichy2.6311811113LAug 23 · 07:45J. Tichy2.258770D. Brichacek1.571111113WAug 23 · 06:15P. Hala1.61715119102J. Tichy2.201113311123LAug 23 · 05:45P. Orlowski1.731116113J. Tichy2.0031440WAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113WAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 18:30J. Tichy1.80611891S. Kalensky1.9111411113
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WAug 26 · 20:38S. Kalensky1.7311101311113J. Tichy2.0081215842WAug 17 · 18:30J. Tichy1.80611891S. Kalensky1.9111411113
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