TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477651
Played Aug 23Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131614114––––
Jiri Tichy
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Jiri Tichy below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 59 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 55.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 14–16 Jiri Tichy Petr Orlowski has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-16 in 30
Tichy
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1573 vs Tichy 1529
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 20% vs Tichy 40%
Tichy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 50% vs Tichy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski -2 · Tichy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.73 / Tichy 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12477651
Orlowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 48 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 36 of 51
Tichy2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 14 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski3wins
AwayTichy7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTichy leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski50%3 of 6
AwayTichy100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski6Tichy4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S2Orlowski6Tichy4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S3Orlowski5Tichy5n = 10split evenly
S4Orlowski1Tichy4n = 5Tichy took 4 of 5
S5Orlowski0Tichy4n = 4Tichy took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiTichyO − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.538.1+0.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 319 vs 107 / 21851.7%49.1%165 / 319 vs 107 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.73/Tichy 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 18:30P. Orlowski—111398112J. Tichy—9111111133
WJul 13 · 18:30P. Orlowski—1111113J. Tichy—9680
LJul 8 · 18:30P. Orlowski—91111582J. Tichy—113811113
WJun 22 · 18:30P. Orlowski—1111113J. Tichy—7820
LJun 3 · 18:00P. Orlowski—111199122J. Tichy—781111143
LMay 31 · 20:00P. Orlowski—12781162J. Tichy—1011116113
LApr 16 · 18:00P. Orlowski—7970J. Tichy—1111113
LApr 7 · 21:03P. Orlowski—881281J. Tichy—111110113
LApr 7 · 20:00P. Orlowski—811120J. Tichy—1113143
WFeb 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski—1311133J. Tichy—116110
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
J. Tichy10
LAug 26 · 20:38S. Kalensky1.7311101311113J. Tichy2.0081215842LAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123LAug 26 · 18:30J. Tichy1.8010770S. Kalensky1.911211113LAug 26 · 17:30J. Tichy2.007760V. Herrmann1.731111113WAug 23 · 08:48D. Brichacek1.44811971J. Tichy2.6311811113LAug 23 · 07:45J. Tichy2.258770D. Brichacek1.571111113WAug 23 · 06:15P. Hala1.61715119102J. Tichy2.201113311123WAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113WAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 18:30J. Tichy1.80611891S. Kalensky1.9111411113
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