TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067333
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111210511211––
Miroslav Vana
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Miroslav Vana below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 70 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 54.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 3–7 Miroslav Vana Jan Marhol has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Vana
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1490 vs Vana 1562
Vana
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 40% vs Vana 60%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 50% vs Vana 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +1 · Vana +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Vana) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 2.00 / Vana 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vana)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067333
Marhol2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Vana1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 51 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarhol3wins
AwayVana7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarholn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVana77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol1Vana9n = 10Vana took 9 of 10
S2Marhol4Vana6n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S3Marhol4Vana6n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S4Marhol3Vana4n = 7Vana took 4 of 7
S5Marhol2Vana1n = 3Marhol took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarholVanaM − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.940.9−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 240 vs 189 / 36051.3%52.5%123 / 240 vs 189 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaMarhol 2.00/Vana 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol—812521M. Vana—111011113
WJun 22 · 16:44J. Marhol—115813113M. Vana—611111192
LJun 22 · 13:45J. Marhol—711891M. Vana—11611113
WJan 22 · 09:33J. Marhol—971111113M. Vana—11117992
LJan 22 · 08:30J. Marhol—761171M. Vana—11116113
LJan 5 · 10:05J. Marhol—87130M. Vana—1111153
LJan 5 · 07:30J. Marhol—4650M. Vana—1111113
LDec 26 · 19:00J. Marhol—51111982M. Vana—118911113
WNov 27 · 13:00J. Marhol—41111113M. Vana—118871
LNov 9 · 10:00J. Marhol—15370M. Vana—1711113
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol1.671111155113F. Kubos2.1099171162
M. Vana10
LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123WSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113LAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Vana2.10121011113L. Hendrych1.671012991
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