TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006779
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13111178111214113
Oleh Plyska
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 101 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jan Marhol at 56.8%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 5–4 Oleh Plyska Oleh Plyska has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marhol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1503 vs Plyska 1536
Plyska
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 60% vs Plyska 40%
Marhol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 50% vs Plyska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol -1 · Plyska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Marhol)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.67 / Plyska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Marhol)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006779
Marhol1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Plyska2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarhol5wins
AwayPlyska4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMarhol leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol50%2 of 4
AwayPlyska40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol4Plyska5n = 9Plyska took 5 of 9
S2Marhol5Plyska4n = 9Marhol took 5 of 9
S3Marhol4Plyska5n = 9Plyska took 5 of 9
S4Marhol5Plyska2n = 7Marhol took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarholPlyskaM − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match40.439.3+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 231 vs 345 / 69251.5%49.9%119 / 231 vs 345 / 692Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.67/Plyska 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marhol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 27 · 12:34J. Marhol—311817113O. Plyska—119111552
LJul 27 · 11:00J. Marhol—129411142O. Plyska—1011118163
WMar 15 · 20:15J. Marhol—11511113O. Plyska—311511
LMar 7 · 11:30J. Marhol—131011111O. Plyska—111213133
LFeb 21 · 20:00J. Marhol—4790O. Plyska—1111113
LJan 22 · 06:30J. Marhol—615691O. Plyska—111311113
WDec 26 · 19:30J. Marhol—101211133O. Plyska—12109111
WDec 23 · 19:45J. Marhol—91111113O. Plyska—117851
WNov 9 · 07:54J. Marhol—1511113O. Plyska—13940
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol1.671111155113F. Kubos2.1099171162
O. Plyska10
WSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 06:30P. Hlina1.831241211113O. Plyska1.83141110962LSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971WSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122WSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123LSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143WSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881
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