TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015184
Played Aug 26Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116611511511––
Jan Marhol
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Jan Marhol below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jan Marhol at 56.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 7–5 Jan Marhol Jan Marhol has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marhol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1491 vs Marhol 1498
Marhol
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Marhol 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 50% vs Marhol 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +1 · Marhol -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Marhol) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.20 / Marhol 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Marhol)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13015184
Schmidtmayer2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 39 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Marhol1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 41 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer5wins
AwayMarhol5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer83.3%5 of 6
AwayMarhol100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer6Marhol4n = 10Schmidtmayer took 6 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer3Marhol7n = 10Marhol took 7 of 10
S3Schmidtmayer8Marhol2n = 10Schmidtmayer took 8 of 10
S4Schmidtmayer2Marhol4n = 6Marhol took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerMarholS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.034.8+1.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerMarholBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 464 vs 120 / 23347.8%51.5%222 / 464 vs 120 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholSchmidtmayer 2.20/Marhol 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marhol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 22 · 14:15F. Schmidtmayer—971171J. Marhol—11119113
LJun 21 · 16:24F. Schmidtmayer—510111162J. Marhol—111294113
LJun 21 · 13:15F. Schmidtmayer—381181J. Marhol—11119113
WMay 8 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer—1111113J. Marhol—5850
WApr 19 · 12:20F. Schmidtmayer—111112113J. Marhol—3131071
LApr 19 · 11:15F. Schmidtmayer—119981J. Marhol—61111113
WMar 14 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer—154118113J. Marhol—131131192
LMar 14 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer—7870J. Marhol—1111113
WMar 8 · 13:17F. Schmidtmayer—1111113J. Marhol—9750
WMar 8 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer—1211113J. Marhol—10880
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol1.671111155113F. Kubos2.1099171162
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