TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031433
Played Aug 28Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111214911––––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Schmidtmayer to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 65 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Frantisek Schmidtmayer at 54.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 5–5 Adam Dvoracek Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1443 vs Dvoracek 1398
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 20% vs Dvoracek 40%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 40% vs Dvoracek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer -3 · Dvoracek +1
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schmidtmayer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 1.73 / Dvoracek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schmidtmayer)+0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13031433
Schmidtmayer1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Dvoracek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer5wins
AwayDvoracek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer100%3 of 3
AwayDvoracek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer3Dvoracek7n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S3Schmidtmayer6Dvoracek4n = 10Schmidtmayer took 6 of 10
S4Schmidtmayer5Dvoracek4n = 9Schmidtmayer took 5 of 9
S5Schmidtmayer3Dvoracek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerDvoracekS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.541.6+0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 459 vs 249 / 46647.5%53.4%218 / 459 vs 249 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchmidtmayerSchmidtmayer 1.73/Dvoracek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Schmidtmayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer—11118113A. Dvoracek—861171
LAug 6 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer—6960A. Dvoracek—1111113
LJul 31 · 13:09F. Schmidtmayer—12101171A. Dvoracek—14124113
WJul 31 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer—148114113A. Dvoracek—121161192
WJul 24 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer—31111113A. Dvoracek—115861
WJul 20 · 13:09F. Schmidtmayer—1141110123A. Dvoracek—711412102
LJul 20 · 10:30F. Schmidtmayer—1011111192A. Dvoracek—128136113
LJun 26 · 12:43F. Schmidtmayer—81181292A. Dvoracek—1131110113
WJun 26 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer—711118113A. Dvoracek—11491192
LJun 21 · 14:13F. Schmidtmayer—106111152A. Dvoracek—121167113
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860LAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752WAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.801091141A. Dvoracek1.9112119103LAug 29 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.8012861162J. Hanacek1.911011112113
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