TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13086109
Played Sep 6Finished
Karel Farsky
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
14127112111012––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Farsky above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Karel Farsky at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Karel Farsky 3–3 Adam Dvoracek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:08What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Farsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Farsky 1407 vs Dvoracek 1484
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Farsky 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Farsky 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Farsky -1 · Dvoracek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Farsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFarsky 1.73 / Dvoracek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Farsky)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13086109
Farsky1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 51 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Dvoracek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 53 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFarsky3wins
AwayDvoracek3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFarsky66.7%2 of 3
AwayDvoracek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Farsky3Dvoracek3n = 6split evenly
S2Farsky2Dvoracek4n = 6Dvoracek took 4 of 6
S3Farsky3Dvoracek3n = 6split evenly
S4Farsky4Dvoracek2n = 6Farsky took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricFarskyDvoracekF − DBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.740.8+1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFarskyDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 345 vs 256 / 47848.4%53.6%167 / 345 vs 256 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyFarsky 1.73/Dvoracek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 21 · 12:34K. Farsky—11611113A. Dvoracek—811611
LAug 21 · 10:00K. Farsky—514791A. Dvoracek—111211113
LJul 31 · 11:00K. Farsky—1281111112A. Dvoracek—1011138133
LApr 21 · 17:04K. Farsky—591281A. Dvoracek—111110113
WApr 21 · 16:00K. Farsky—121111113A. Dvoracek—1081341
WApr 16 · 13:30K. Farsky—891111113A. Dvoracek—11116492
K. Farsky10
WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113WAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752WAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.801091141A. Dvoracek1.9112119103LAug 29 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.8012861162J. Hanacek1.911011112113WAug 29 · 14:30O. Plyska1.5311913872A. Dvoracek2.38411111183
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