TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022689
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Pina
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210117711211811
Karel Farsky
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Pina above · Karel Farsky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Karel Farsky at 58.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pina 1–2 Karel Farsky Jan Pina has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Farsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pina 1419 vs Farsky 1406
Pina
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pina 40% vs Farsky 20%
Pina
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pina 40% vs Farsky 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pina -3 · Farsky -2
Pina
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Farsky) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPina 2.25 / Farsky 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Farsky)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13022689
Pina2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Farsky1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite53% won 52 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 35 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePina1wins
AwayFarsky2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFarsky leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePinan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayFarsky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pina0Farsky3n = 3Farsky took 3 of 3
S2Pina2Farsky1n = 3Pina took 2 of 3
S3Pina2Farsky1n = 3Pina took 2 of 3
S4Pina0Farsky3n = 3Farsky took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPinaFarskyP − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match40.342.3−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPinaFarskyBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 114 vs 166 / 34348.3%48.4%55 / 114 vs 166 / 343Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyPina 2.25/Farsky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Farsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 3 · 15:30J. Pina—9511141K. Farsky—11117163
WJun 28 · 20:44J. Pina—811117113K. Farsky—11891122
LJun 28 · 19:45J. Pina—1211471K. Farsky—14511113
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122WSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981LAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
K. Farsky10
WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162
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