TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084378
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Pina
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111416118511––
Karel Jirousek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Pina above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 81 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 61.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pina 5–7 Karel Jirousek Jan Pina has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jirousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Jirousek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pina 1430 vs Jirousek 1468
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pina 20% vs Jirousek 40%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pina 30% vs Jirousek 50%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pina +1 · Jirousek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jirousek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPina 2.25 / Jirousek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Jirousek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084378
Pina2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 13 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back36% 8 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Jirousek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 43 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePina4wins
AwayJirousek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJirousek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePina66.7%2 of 3
AwayJirousek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pina3Jirousek7n = 10Jirousek took 7 of 10
S2Pina2Jirousek8n = 10Jirousek took 8 of 10
S3Pina4Jirousek6n = 10Jirousek took 6 of 10
S4Pina4Jirousek4n = 8split evenly
S5Pina4Jirousek1n = 5Pina took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPinaJirousekP − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.5−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPinaJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 119 vs 229 / 44548.7%51.5%58 / 119 vs 229 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekPina 2.25/Jirousek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina—5141151K. Jirousek—11168113
LAug 27 · 18:30J. Pina—911981K. Jirousek—11811113
WFeb 28 · 09:34J. Pina—481111113K. Jirousek—11119782
LFeb 28 · 07:00J. Pina—13101151K. Jirousek—15129113
LFeb 15 · 09:28J. Pina—11441192K. Jirousek—911117113
WFeb 15 · 07:30J. Pina—118114113K. Jirousek—21171152
LSep 27 · 19:00J. Pina—5780K. Jirousek—1111113
WSep 7 · 08:55J. Pina—118611133K. Jirousek—911116112
LSep 7 · 06:15J. Pina—7870K. Jirousek—1111113
WMay 6 · 18:00J. Pina—7121011103K. Jirousek—111012762
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122WSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981LAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
K. Jirousek10
WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113LSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950WSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113LAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981
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