TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073914
Played Sep 4Finished
Ladislav Tuma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119115––––
Karel Jirousek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Tuma above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 56 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Tuma 6–7 Karel Jirousek Ladislav Tuma has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jirousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1454 vs Jirousek 1464
Jirousek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 40% vs Jirousek 60%
Jirousek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 50% vs Jirousek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma -2 · Jirousek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.91 / Jirousek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jirousek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073914
Tuma1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 44 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Jirousek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 43 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it67% 31 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma6wins
AwayJirousek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma100%3 of 3
AwayJirousek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma3Jirousek7n = 10Jirousek took 7 of 10
S2Tuma7Jirousek3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S3Tuma8Jirousek2n = 10Tuma took 8 of 10
S4Tuma2Jirousek6n = 8Jirousek took 6 of 8
S5Tuma3Jirousek1n = 4Tuma took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaJirousekT − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.9−0.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 474 vs 226 / 43949.6%51.5%235 / 474 vs 226 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekTuma 1.91/Jirousek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 16:00L. Tuma—9112121K. Jirousek—11711143
WJul 21 · 19:30L. Tuma—541112113K. Jirousek—111181052
WJul 16 · 18:00L. Tuma—1011135113K. Jirousek—124111182
WJul 15 · 16:13L. Tuma—715115113K. Jirousek—111331192
LJul 15 · 14:45L. Tuma—411741K. Jirousek—11211113
LJun 24 · 14:30L. Tuma—721141K. Jirousek—11119113
WApr 22 · 15:30L. Tuma—1111123K. Jirousek—67100
LApr 6 · 18:15L. Tuma—6111311102K. Jirousek—1151113123
WMar 13 · 18:00L. Tuma—1111113K. Jirousek—6780
WMar 13 · 15:00L. Tuma—11511113K. Jirousek—911871
L. Tuma10
WSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Husek2.0081191192L. Tuma1.73119115113LSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113LSep 2 · 16:58L. Tuma2.20811100V. Toman1.611113123WSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 15:00V. Toman1.73611117113L. Tuma2.0011941172WSep 2 · 13:30P. Hlina2.25991461L. Tuma1.57111112113WAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180WAug 27 · 16:00L. Tuma1.6791112113J. Jnr2.101131081WAug 27 · 14:30J. Blazek2.75961181L. Tuma1.4011117113
K. Jirousek10
WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113LAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981
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