TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031454
Played Aug 28Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111141181113117
Petr Kotrbacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Schmidtmayer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Petr Kotrbacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Frantisek Schmidtmayer at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 1–1 Petr Kotrbacek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:07What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schmidtmayer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1427 vs Kotrbacek 1478
Kotrbacek
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 20% vs Kotrbacek 80%
Kotrbacek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 30% vs Kotrbacek 70%
Kotrbacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer -4 · Kotrbacek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotrbacek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotrbacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 1.80 / Kotrbacek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kotrbacek)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031454
Schmidtmayer1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Kotrbacek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer1wins
AwayKotrbacek1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerKotrbacekS − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.542.5−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerKotrbacekBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 460 vs 124 / 26647.4%46.6%218 / 460 vs 124 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotrbacekSchmidtmayer 1.80/Kotrbacek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kotrbacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 9 · 20:43F. Schmidtmayer—611971P. Kotrbacek—11611113
WJul 9 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer—411911113P. Kotrbacek—11911782
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860LAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113WSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931WAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.801361410152A. Dvoracek1.9111111212173
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