TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031274
Played Aug 28Finished
Petr Kotrbacek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311611141210121517
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kotrbacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Kotrbacek above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 121 set 5, 15-17 — our read held Petr Kotrbacek at 54.0%
121 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kotrbacek 5–5 Adam Dvoracek Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kotrbacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotrbacek 1453 vs Dvoracek 1415
Kotrbacek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotrbacek 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Kotrbacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotrbacek 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Kotrbacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotrbacek -1 · Dvoracek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotrbacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotrbacek 1.80 / Dvoracek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotrbacek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031274
Kotrbacek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 35 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Dvoracek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotrbacek5wins
AwayDvoracek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotrbacek55.6%5 of 9
AwayDvoracekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotrbacek9Dvoracek1n = 10Kotrbacek took 9 of 10
S2Kotrbacek4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Kotrbacek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kotrbacek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S5Kotrbacek1Dvoracek4n = 5Dvoracek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotrbacekDvoracekK − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.541.4+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotrbacekDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 269 vs 251 / 47046.5%53.4%125 / 269 vs 251 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotrbacekKotrbacek 1.80/Dvoracek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kotrbacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek—1361410152A. Dvoracek—11111212173
WAug 20 · 17:28P. Kotrbacek—125117113A. Dvoracek—101161192
LJul 25 · 20:58P. Kotrbacek—11971152A. Dvoracek—411116113
LJul 25 · 18:30P. Kotrbacek—125861A. Dvoracek—101111113
LJun 20 · 11:45P. Kotrbacek—51111962A. Dvoracek—117611113
WJun 11 · 18:45P. Kotrbacek—11711133A. Dvoracek—4113111
WApr 21 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek—11117113A. Dvoracek—931171
LApr 17 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek—14511842A. Dvoracek—1211911113
WMar 3 · 15:30P. Kotrbacek—11116113A. Dvoracek—761161
WFeb 27 · 15:15P. Kotrbacek—11119113A. Dvoracek—391161
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113WSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931WAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752WAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.801091141A. Dvoracek1.9112119103LAug 29 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.8012861162J. Hanacek1.911011112113
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