TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055152
Played Sep 1Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416117511811––
Petr Kotrbacek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kotrbacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Petr Kotrbacek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 83 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Petr Kotrbacek at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 2–4 Petr Kotrbacek Frantisek Schmidtmayer has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kotrbacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kotrbacek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1378 vs Kotrbacek 1447
Kotrbacek
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 20% vs Kotrbacek 40%
Kotrbacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 20% vs Kotrbacek 50%
Kotrbacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer -3 · Kotrbacek -1
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotrbacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotrbacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 1.83 / Kotrbacek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kotrbacek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055152
Schmidtmayer1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kotrbacek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer2wins
AwayKotrbacek4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderKotrbacek leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayern = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKotrbacek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer1Kotrbacek5n = 6Kotrbacek took 5 of 6
S2Schmidtmayer5Kotrbacek1n = 6Schmidtmayer took 5 of 6
S3Schmidtmayer3Kotrbacek3n = 6split evenly
S4Schmidtmayer1Kotrbacek5n = 6Kotrbacek took 5 of 6
S5Schmidtmayer2Kotrbacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerKotrbacekS − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match44.246.7−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerKotrbacekBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 463 vs 125 / 26946.7%46.5%216 / 463 vs 125 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotrbacekSchmidtmayer 1.83/Kotrbacek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotrbacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kotrbacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 1 · 16:39F. Schmidtmayer—912126102P. Kotrbacek—11101011123
LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer—1411581P. Kotrbacek—16711113
LAug 28 · 16:45F. Schmidtmayer—111111682P. Kotrbacek—913911113
WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer—8111111113P. Kotrbacek—11481372
LJul 9 · 20:43F. Schmidtmayer—611971P. Kotrbacek—11611113
WJul 9 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer—411911113P. Kotrbacek—11911782
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860LAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931WAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.801361410152A. Dvoracek1.9111111212173LAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372
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