TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031617
Played Aug 28Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8114111131210611
Miroslav Vana
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Miroslav Vana below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 56.6%
87 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 5–7 Miroslav Vana Frantisek Schmidtmayer has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Vana
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1421 vs Vana 1555
Vana
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 20% vs Vana 60%
Vana
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 40% vs Vana 60%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +1 · Vana +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.10 / Vana 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vana)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13031617
Schmidtmayer2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Vana1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayVana6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer75%3 of 4
AwayVana83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Vana6n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S3Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S4Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S5Schmidtmayer2Vana3n = 5Vana took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerVanaS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.6−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 463 vs 186 / 35747.3%52.1%219 / 463 vs 186 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaSchmidtmayer 2.10/Vana 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer—84111262M. Vana—1111310113
WAug 20 · 11:45F. Schmidtmayer—11119113M. Vana—861191
LAug 13 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer—771151M. Vana—11119113
LAug 9 · 09:15F. Schmidtmayer—79111172M. Vana—111189113
WJul 24 · 12:29F. Schmidtmayer—11118113M. Vana—861181
LJul 24 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer—911981M. Vana—11911113
LJul 22 · 09:15F. Schmidtmayer—1121051M. Vana—91112113
WJul 20 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer—115118113M. Vana—91191162
WJul 8 · 12:18F. Schmidtmayer—511311113M. Vana—11911672
LJul 8 · 11:15F. Schmidtmayer—71111792M. Vana—116711113
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860LAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113
M. Vana10
LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123WSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691LSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113LAug 31 · 20:38M. Vana1.531181061T. Stejskal2.3871112113WAug 31 · 19:30T. Stejskal2.2031181162M. Vana1.61116119113
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