TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006816
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191191517511116
Filip Kubos
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 105 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Marhol at 56.8%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 6–5 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marhol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1505 vs Kubos 1422
Marhol
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 60% vs Kubos 20%
Marhol
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 60% vs Kubos 30%
Marhol
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +1 · Kubos -4
Kubos
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Marhol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.67 / Kubos 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Marhol)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006816
Marhol1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Kubos2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarhol5wins
AwayKubos5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol100%3 of 3
AwayKubos71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol3Kubos7n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S2Marhol4Kubos6n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S3Marhol7Kubos3n = 10Marhol took 7 of 10
S4Marhol5Kubos4n = 9Marhol took 5 of 9
S5Marhol2Kubos2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarholKubosM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.6−0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 229 vs 361 / 71051.5%50.9%118 / 229 vs 361 / 710Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.67/Kubos 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marhol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 06:45J. Marhol—115119113F. Kubos—71181172
LMay 10 · 17:09J. Marhol—6101281F. Kubos—111210113
WMay 10 · 16:00J. Marhol—791111113F. Kubos—11116692
LMay 9 · 16:18J. Marhol—91161152F. Kubos—119113113
WMay 9 · 13:45J. Marhol—11115143F. Kubos—6911121
LMar 2 · 09:28J. Marhol—9860F. Kubos—1111113
WMar 2 · 08:00J. Marhol—11311113F. Kubos—311851
LMar 1 · 19:30J. Marhol—101111782F. Kubos—128911113
LFeb 14 · 19:30J. Marhol—991141F. Kubos—11118113
WNov 22 · 06:30J. Marhol—71114113F. Kubos—1191281
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 20:00S. Kalensky1.73111139113F. Kubos2.0069111142LSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133WAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870
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